President Joe Biden may have fallen down a slippery slope that leads to a second term for Donald Trump. Special counsel Robert Hur’s decision not to file criminal charges against the 81-year-old Biden due to him being “a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory,” has brought with it a focus on the president’s record that should leave Democrats seeking an escape hatch.
This should hardly be a shocking revelation, though. Even before the Hur report and the president’s disastrous public appearance follow-up, his reelection prospects were dimming. An NBC news poll from January had the twice impeached Trump, who faces millions in judgements against him in addition to several ongoing criminal cases, leading Biden by 5five percentage[MD1] points in a general election, with almost three-quarters of respondents saying that they believe the country is heading in the wrong direction under the incumbent. Things do not look better for Biden on the top voting issues, either, with polling favoring Trump’s handling of border security, crime and the economy — as well as finding the former president more “competent and effective.”
But the NBC poll is far from an outlier. No recent poll has Biden breaking a 45% approval rating, with Gallop reporting in January — when the president reached a 41% job approval rating — that he had reached “a record low for an incumbent president at this stage of his presidency.” As of last week, Biden had an approve/disapprove of 38-55 percent respectfully, according to polling from FiveThirtyEight.
Matchups in swing states paint a darker picture. According to a November New York Times, Siena College poll, Trump leads the current president in Nevada (+10), Georgia (+6), Arizona (+5), and Michigan (+5). Pennsylvania is slightly more competitive, leaning Trump by only 4four percentage points.
These numbers should spur a sea change among Democrats, who have instead chosen to back the president. The latest spin being that voters just do not know the real Biden, who they portray as a dynamo behind the scenes. If it is a matter of getting out there and showing the public that Biden is equal parts statesman and Renaissance man, then by all means get to it. But, thus far, it seems like his team is trying to hide him by reducing his schedule and ignoring his record of avoiding sit-down interviews.
A lot can change between now and November. But gambling on an “October shake-up” is hardly a winning strategy. While Trump has a penchant for breaking the law and goading judges into hitting him with the harshest penalties for his crimes, hoping for a conviction that disqualifies him ignores the degree in which voters dislike Biden. One example of which is that former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, Trump’s long shot primary opponent, beats Biden with a margin than Trump in the general election, according to the NBC news poll. This makes sense, as the same poll shows that Biden supporters are more against Trump than they are for Biden.
So what is the party to do? They may be stuck. Democrats who call on the president not to run will need to have an answer for who they think should lead their party. Disagreement over who that should be will likely fracture the party in the same way it shattered the GOP. This is to say nothing of the fact that, whomever the party chooses, they will have to hit the ground running if they are to secure enough delegates by convention season. Removing the president from office via the 25th Amendment is not an option either, as elevating Kamala Harris, who was found to be “the least popular vice president in the last 30 years,” would guarantee a Democratic defeat in the presidential contest.
The only real option is for President Biden to realize the danger he places the country in and gracefully bail out as soon as possible, releasing his delegates to pick someone new with his blessing. Such action, choosing service over self, would be looked upon fondly by both Democrats and independents. The newfound respect will give him a larger voice in the molding of party politics going forward, allowing him to cement a legacy and spend his retirement years on a beach in his beloved Delaware. Continuing to run creates an outsized chance that Trump wins a second term. The choice is Biden’s.
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