When given the choice between Donald Trump or Joe Biden for president, most Americans pick neither. Someone should tell the primary voters, though, as results from South Carolina and Michigan show both candidates sprinting toward the finish line of securing their party’s nomination.

Why? The answer differs based on political affiliation, it seems. A majority of Trump voters say they are voting for him rather than against Biden, while a majority of Biden voters say they are voting against Trump as opposed to voting for Biden, a January NBC/Hart Research poll said.

This is a good indicator that Republican voters are choosing Trump for one of two reasons: One, he is a cult of personality or two, Biden has left the door open by playing to his base on policy, turning off moderates.

These same moderates are the swing state voters who will decide the general election come November. And South Carolina and Michigan show that despite Trump’s general election polling lead, there are cracks that Biden can exploit if he moves to the center of issues that moderates care about.

Trump won the Feb. 24 primary in South Carolina, beating his opponent, the Palmetto State’s former governor, Nikki Haley, by 20 points. But all is not what it appears, as he lost to Haley in the coastal Charleston and Beaufort counties by greater than 10 points and lost Richland County — home of the state’s capital, Columbia, by 16.

Beaufort represents a change for Trump, who won the county in the much more crowded 2016 primary contest. And all three counties that Trump lost this time shifted 3-5 points toward Democrats between the 2016-2020 election, reporting by The New York Times shows.

South Carolina is not a swing state, but it shows a long-standing vulnerability for Trump: college-educated, suburban voters. According to exit polls reported by CNN, Haley won 59% of advanced degree holders and 74% of self-identified moderates. Trump will need these voters in a general election, and he is unlikely to woo them by calling their candidate of choice “birdbrain,” something he is unlikely to discontinue.

Now, in contrast to South Carolina, Michigan shows Biden’s weakness. Biden has no real challengers in the Democratic primary, but still managed to lose two delegates to “uncommitted,” the second-place winner of the Great Lakes state. 

The uncommitted vote was the brainchild of Democratic voters who are displeased with Biden’s support of Israel. As of Feb. 28, over 100,000 ballots were cast for uncommitted. Another 40,000 votes were split between “spiritual guru” Marianne Willamson and Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips. Biden won Michigan in 2020 with around 154,000 votes.

The uncommitted vote in Michigan represents a Catch 22 for Biden. A Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that Americans are split down the middle on the issue of continuing military support for Israel. This means Biden has to continue to equivocate on the issue, or risk losing voters. His best course of action, for election purposes, is to continue support, as voters may not stay home if it means giving Trump the foreign policy reigns. Acting on border security, a top issue of voters, will also help, as Texas border counties shifted radically, greater than 40%, for Republican’s favor between 2016-2020.

Super Tuesday will offer further insights into the public’s consciousness. It will be the day that most primary voters will get to make their voice heard. If the early states are any indicator, one can expect few surprises. But both Trump and Biden would do well to improve their standings with moderates and beware the ides of March. 

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