U.S. Army War College research professor John R. Deni gave a lecture on the future of German national security policy in the Grove Hall Forum from 6:30 p.m.-8:30 p.m. on Wednesday, April 23.

Deni previously worked as a political advisor to U.S. military commanders stationed in Europe.

Also in attendance representing the International Studies Program was professor Jonathan Skaff, joined by Global Languages and Cultures professor David Wildermuth.

The lecture began with introductions, where Deni emphasized that his arguments did not represent the views of NATO or any government organization.

Deni took the first 20-30 minutes to catch attending students on the background of the Russo-Ukrainian War, as well as the current and future state of German national security. His presentation was followed by an extensive Q&A session with the audience.

At the beginning of his lecture, Deni introduced the idea of the German Zeitenwende, which translates to turning point. In specific, Deni focused on three key political and economic changes the German government underwent following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The first key idea was on the overhaul of German defense spending. According to Deni, Germany has not met the NATO standard defense goal of two percent of its GDP since 1990. Following the 2022 invasion, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a  $100 billion euro defense fund, which was 1.5 times the defense budget at the time.

Deni continued that Chancellor Scholz’s spending plan was unprecedented in German history and required a constitution amendment be passed in Germany’s Bundestag.

The future of German energy security was the next key idea of Deni’s lecture. One problem facing the European nation is its heavy reliance on Russian natural gas imports. According to Deni, Germany receives 49% of its gas from Russia.

Deni outlined the German solution to its gas reliance, which focuses on the development of liquified natural gas (LNG) infrastructure and strategic gas storage.

The last key idea of Wednesday night’s lecture focused on the development of Germany’s first national security strategy.

Deni explained the concept of Ostpolitik, which translates to eastern politics. For many decades the goal of the German government was to cooperate with Russia to prevent another large-scale European conflict. The war in Ukraine marked the ending of Ostpolitik and the beginning of German opposition to the Kremlin.

According to Deni, since the war began Germany has become the second largest contributor of aid to Ukraine. In addition, Germany was the first member of NATO to station troops in Lithuania, which borders the Russian Kaliningrad Oblast.

After wrapping up the key ideas of his lecture, Deni spoke on the future of the Zeitenwende and its challenges in the coming years. Such challenges include defense budget procurement, the rise of the German far-right and energy costs.

Deni noted that the atrocities committed by the Russian military in Ukraine has bolstered German public opinion in favor of Zeitenwende policies.

During the hour-long Q&A session that followed the lecture, topics ranged from the future of German security to the future of potential Russian aggression in Europe.

On the matter of German national security, one student raised concerns on the influence Russian disinformation campaigns could have on European politics.

Deni responded that it is possible the Kremlin is amplifying messages that focus on migrant crime issues in Germany. He also stated that some believe the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party could be linked to Russian influence.

Deni also spoke on European concerns about sharing security information with the United States following the Signal chat leaks, which poses a potential issue for German security policies going forward.

Another student asked Deni if it could be argued another “Axis of Evil” was forming between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea in reference to President Bush’s famous 2002 State of the Union address.

Deni stated that “Axis of Upheaval” may be a better term to define these nations: “A lot of these governments are revisionist in nature. They are not status quo powers,” he said. “Axis of Upheaval generalizes what these powers are doing.”

Before the lecture ended, Deni was asked if there was a risk of war spilling into the rest of Europe. He responded that a Russian victory in Ukraine could inspire the Kremlin to pressure other Eastern European nations, which has caused concern in these nations.

According to Deni, most NATO observers think there is merit to these concerns.

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